Photo by Robb Miller on Unsplash
Last updated: October 13, 2026. Editorial Team — researched using reporting from Reuters (via Kitco) and Stocktwits. See “Sources & Methodology” below.
Quick Answer
This is the first big test of third-quarter earnings season and of the inflation data that will shape the Fed’s next move. JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Wells Fargo report before the open today (Tuesday, October 13), with Morgan Stanley and Bank of America due Wednesday, according to a Reuters week-ahead preview. The September CPI report is also due Wednesday, October 14. Reuters’ poll expects headline CPI of 3.6% year over year and core CPI of 2.5%, while the 10-year Treasury yield sits around 5.23%, near its highest level in 24 years. The Fed meets October 27-28, after raising rates in September for the first time since 2023. Results were not yet known at the time of writing, so this article focuses on what to watch rather than what happened.
Where the Market Stands Going In
Per Reuters, the S&P 500 hit an all-time closing high last Tuesday, its first since mid-August, and is up more than 13% year to date despite declines on Wednesday and Thursday. Reuters also notes that LSEG IBES expects third-quarter S&P 500 earnings to grow more than 30%, following a strong first half. Our own coverage of the prior quarter is in S&P 500 Q2 2026 Earnings: Strongest Growth Since 2021, which provides useful context for how high the earnings bar has become.
The weak spot is financials. Reuters reports the S&P 500 banks index fell about 9% over the past month, among the market’s weakest groups as Treasury yields rose. That sets up an unusual dynamic: the sector reporting first is also the one carrying the most skepticism.
The Bank Earnings Calendar
Stocktwits, citing Fiscal.ai data, lists the following consensus estimates for the banks reporting Tuesday before the open:
- JPMorgan Chase (JPM): EPS $5.95, revenue $51.16 billion
- Citigroup (C): EPS $2.69, revenue $23.5 billion
- Goldman Sachs (GS): EPS $14.84, revenue $17.92 billion
- Wells Fargo (WFC): EPS $1.79, revenue $22.37 billion
Reuters says Morgan Stanley and Bank of America follow on Wednesday. Stocktwits also lists BlackRock for Wednesday, while Reuters groups BlackRock with other companies reporting this week, such as Johnson & Johnson and UnitedHealth, so check each company’s investor relations page for exact timing. Estimates vary by data provider and can shift before the print.
What Strategists Want to See From the Banks
Matthew Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at Manulife John Hancock Investments, told Reuters: “Earnings have been incredible this year, and we’re just going to have to start to see with the banks how Q3 shaped up.” He added that he expects “a sigh of relief if these financial services companies come out with good results next week.”
Beyond headline EPS, the following items tend to matter most in a rising-rate environment (this is general analytical framing, not a forecast of any specific bank’s results):
- Net interest income guidance: Higher rates can widen lending margins, but they can also raise funding costs.
- Credit quality: Loan-loss provisions and card delinquencies show how consumers and businesses are coping with higher borrowing costs.
- Capital markets activity: Trading and investment banking revenue is a major swing factor for Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.
- Management tone: Commentary on the consumer and the economy often moves shares as much as the numbers.
The CPI Report: Why Wednesday Matters
The September CPI report arrives Wednesday, October 14. The Reuters poll points to 3.6% annual headline inflation and 2.5% core, against the Fed’s 2% target. A separate consensus compiled by MarketWatch and cited by Stocktwits is slightly different, at +0.6% month over month and 3.7% year over year for headline, and +0.2% month over month and 2.5% year over year for core. The gap between forecasts is small, but it is a reminder that “consensus” is not one number.
The headline-versus-core gap is the story. A headline reading well above core points to energy as a major driver, which fits the oil-driven volatility we have covered in Stocks Rebound Sharply the Day After the Fed’s Rate Hike. Reuters adds that producer price and retail sales reports are also due this week.
The Fed Backdrop: Hike Bets Have Cooled, But Not Disappeared
According to Reuters, traders have reduced bets on another rate hike at the October 27-28 meeting, but hotter data could revive them. Matt Stucky, chief portfolio manager for equities at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management, said: “If you start to see more evidence of re-accelerating inflation that’s not going to come down absent a full hiking cycle from the Fed, that’s where equity markets really can be under pressure.”
Michael Reynolds of Glenmede put the focus on services: “We really want to see material progress on (core services inflation) to get a little bit more confident that the Fed doesn’t have to be as aggressive as maybe the market’s pricing in,” adding that “at some point, major indices are going to cry uncle on higher rates.” Stocktwits also notes that Kevin Warsh is scheduled to speak Thursday at the IMF and World Bank annual meetings, and that Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack has a speaking engagement the same day.
The 5% Yield Question
Reuters says the 10-year yield was around 5.23% late last week. Many investors had treated 5% as a key threshold for stock market pressure, yet the market has so far absorbed yields above that level. We examined the rate backdrop in Stocks Slide as 10-Year Treasury Yield Hits Highest Level Since 2007. A hot CPI print could test how durable that tolerance is, while a benign one could ease pressure on rate-sensitive sectors, including banks.
Scenarios Worth Thinking About
- Solid bank results and cooler CPI: Could support the “sigh of relief” Miskin describes and ease yield pressure.
- Solid bank results but hot CPI: Strong earnings may be overshadowed by renewed rate-hike fears.
- Weak bank guidance and hot CPI: The most challenging combination for a market near record highs.
These are illustrations of how the pieces could interact, not predictions. Markets frequently react in ways that surprise consensus, which is one reason many investors avoid trading around single events.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which banks report earnings this week?
Per Reuters, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Wells Fargo report Tuesday, October 13, and Morgan Stanley and Bank of America report Wednesday. BlackRock is also expected this week.
When is the September CPI report?
Reuters says it is due Wednesday, October 14. The Reuters poll expects 3.6% headline and 2.5% core inflation year over year.
Why does CPI matter for the stock market right now?
The Fed raised rates in September and meets again October 27-28. Hotter inflation data could revive bets on another hike, which strategists quoted by Reuters flag as a risk for equities.
Why have bank stocks been weak?
Reuters reports the S&P 500 banks index fell about 9% over the past month amid rising Treasury yields. The article does not attribute the decline to a single cause.
Does volatility look low heading into the week?
Not necessarily. We covered the calm-market warnings in VIX at a 2026 Low; event-heavy weeks like this one are when that calm is tested.
Sources & Methodology
Sources: Reuters “Wall St Week Ahead: Bank earnings, CPI headline busy markets week as S&P 500 hovers near records” (October 9, 2026, via Kitco); Stocktwits “What To Expect In Markets This Week” (October 11, 2026), citing Fiscal.ai and MarketWatch consensus data. Estimates and schedules may change; earnings results were not available when this was written.
This article is for informational purposes only and is not financial or investment advice. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.
